FACEBOOK RONALD ALMEIDA 22JAN2020
O NOVO BRASIL 2019-2022 NA VISÃO DOS ESTRATEGISTAS DE HONG
KONG (HKTDC). DOCUMENTO ELABORADO PELO CONSELHO DE DESENVOLVIMENTO DO COMÉRCIO
DE HONK KONG, UMA DAS MAIS PRESTIGIOSAS ENTIDADES OFICIAIS CHINESAS.
HONG KONG é um dos mais importantes centros financeiros do mundo
e sua macrorregião, incluindo SHENZEN e MACAU (ex-colônia portuguesa até 1999),
é o maior portal econômico da Grande China.
O HKTDC foi criado em 1966 para promover, apoiar e desenvolver o
comércio internacional dentro da lógica e da legislação capitalista, baseado na
lei comum britânica (Basic Law), sob o princípio administrativo “Um País, Dois
Sistemas”.
Essa situação de segurança jurídica diferenciada favoreceu HONG
KONG e está em vigor nessa cidade (municipalidade) que tem o status oficial de
REGIÃO ADMINISTRATIVA ESPECIAL - RAE, (ou SAR – Special Administrative Region),
status este concedido pelo Poder Central da REPÚBLICA POPULAR DA CHINA, desde
01jul1997, quando o então território da antiga colônia britânica foi devolvido
ao país de origem
O HKTDC tem 50 escritórios de promoção comercial (e de
atração de negócios, investimentos e turismo) em várias partes do mundo (sendo 1
em São Paulo e 13 na China).
Occupied by the UK in 1841, Hong Kong was formally
ceded by China the following year; various adjacent lands were added later in
the 19th century. Pursuant to an agreement signed by China and the UK on 19
December 1984, Hong Kong became the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of
the People's Republic of China on 1 July 1997. In this agreement, China
promised that, under its "one country, two systems" formula, China's
socialist economic system would not be imposed on Hong Kong and that Hong Kong
would enjoy a "high degree of autonomy" in all matters except foreign
and defense affairs for the subsequent 50 years.
AREA: total: 1,108 sq km (land: 1,073 sq km; water: 35
sq km)
NATIONALITY: noun: Chinese/Hong Konger /
adjective: Chinese/Hong Kong
ETHNIC GROUPS:Chinese 92%, Filipino 2.5%, Indonesian 2.1%, other
3.4% (2016 est.)
LANGUAGES: Cantonese (official) 88.9%, English (official) 4.3%,
Mandarin (official) 1.9%, other Chinese dialects 3.1%, other 1.9% (2016
est.)
BRAZIL: New Government [2019-2022], New
Policy and New Opportunities
[The Vision from Hong Kong,
China]
 |
From: HKTDC 2020
|
Source: HKTDC*; Date: 10 Jan 2020; Charlotte Man, economist
http://economists-pick-research.hktdc.com/business-news/article/Research-Articles/Brazil-New-
Government-New-Policy-and-New-Opportunities/rp/en/1/1X000000/1X0AJMRF.htm
Access / Reissue: Ronald de Almeida Silva; 2020-01-22
(*) The HONG
KONG TRADE DEVELOPMENT COUNCIL (HKTDC) is a statutory body established in 1966
to promote, assist and develop Hong Kong's trade. With 50 offices globally,
including 13 in Mainland China, the HKTDC promotes Hong Kong as a two-way
global investment and business hub.
[1] [THE BOLSONARO ERA]
1.
After
being sworn in on 1 January 2019, Brazil’s President BOLSONARO has given priority to implementing a series of long
overdue reforms spanning primarily pensions and social security, taxation, and
privatisation of inefficient and often corruption-plagued government-owned
enterprises.
2.
One of
the many pro-market moves is the appointment of the veteran investment banker
and Chicago-trained free-market economist, PAULO
GUEDES, as the head of a newly-established super-ministry of the economy.
The new ministry has seven special secretariats – finance; federal revenue;
foreign trade and international affairs; privatisation and disinvestment;
productivity, employment and competitiveness; bureaucracy reduction, management
and digital government; and social security and work.
3.
Given the
greater authority of his position, GUEDES
wasted no time before spearheading the much-vaunted pension reform, which was
passed on 22 October 2019 as the centerpiece of the president’s plans to cut
government debt and shore up finances.
4.
This has
given international traders and investors, including Hong Kong companies, high
hopes for a quicker pace of change in the country, especially if other reforms
tackling the country’s notorious business environment with respect to taxation
and government inefficiency also work out as planned.
[2] A BIG STEP FORWARD
5.
In just
one year after taking office, the BOLSONARO
administration has made remarkable strides in tackling Brazil’s unsustainable
social security system. The long-awaited pension reform, which will raise the
retirement age for men to 65 and women to 62, is forecast to shore up the state
finances by R$800 billion (~US$200 billion) over the coming 10 years.
6.
The
pension reform to overhaul the social security system, which accounts for the
lion’s share of government spending, is widely seen as a key step for Brazil to
strengthen its fiscal position, hopefully reducing the country’s deficit to
3.2% of GDP in 2023 from the current five-year average of 8.0%.
7.
The
improved government deficit is not only essential to boost business confidence,
but may also stimulate mid- to long-term investment and big economic decisions
against a background of the lower interest rates and reduced inflation that
should follow. The reformed finances may empower both the public and private
sectors to spend more on projects which can improve the country’s noted
deficiency in physical business infrastructure.
8.
To this
end, The Federation of Industries
of the State of Rio de Janeiro (Firjan) is expecting an increase of R$655
billion (~US$160 billion) in public investment and an increase of R$729 billion
(~US$180 billion) in private investment in the medium term across housing,
sanitation, public safety, health, education and social sectors.
9.
More
importantly, the significant victory over pension reform has created high hopes
for the successful introduction of other much-anticipated reforms in the
pipeline dealing with taxation and privatisation. It is believed that the trust
established between the BOLSONARO administration
and Congress will be able to deliver more beneficial reform in the years ahead.
[3] LESS
(TAXES) IS MORE (BUSINESS)
10.
With over
80 different taxes at the federal, state and municipal level, governed by some
6,000 laws, Brazil has an unarguably stressful and complex tax system.
According to the World Bank’s Ease of doing business 2020, a medium-sized
domestic company in Brazil has to set aside over 1,500 hours to settle its tax
payments, at the top of the 190 economies surveyed. Hong Kong companies who are
looking to dip their toes into the country are likely to find it difficult to
understand which tax to pay, what tax rate should be applied and to which
authority the tax should be paid.
11.
But
thanks to the new reformist government, sweeping changes of the burdensome tax
system are already in the offing. After years of discussion, two key proposals
have been submitted to the Congress, in the hope of simplifying the country’s
tax system by substituting several taxes with a single goods and services tax (Imposto Único sobre Bens e Serviços, IBS).
12.
The first
proposal introduced in the House of Representatives in April 2019 suggested
substituting federal value-added tax
(IPI), social integration program tax (PIS), social security financing
contribution (COFINS), state value-added tax (ICMS) and municipal tax on
services (ISS) with IBS at a rate equivalent to the sum of the five rates set
by the federal, state and municipal authorities.
13.
The
second proposal, introduced in the Senate in July 2019, further suggested
abolishing federal tax on financial transactions (IOF) and contributions for
intervention in the economic domain for fuels (CIDE-fuels), on top of the five
taxes named in the first proposal, by creating a uniform IBS rate throughout
the whole country.
14.
Although
no tax cuts or exemptions are offered in either proposal, the simplification
among federal, state and municipal taxes is expected to generate significant
improvements for tax management in normal business activities, especially
for those who are new to the Brazilian market, offering a potential gain of
more than R$120 billion (~US$30 billion) to the country, according
to Firjan.
15.
The BOLSONARO government is believed to be
drafting another ambitious proposal to simplify and lower corporate and
individual taxes, which will depend upon how the two initial tax reform
proposals are received by the Congress.
[4] ROLLING OUT THE RED CARPET
16.
Another
keynote theme of BOLSONARO’s reforms
is the privatisation of inefficient and often corruption-plagued
government-owned enterprises which are estimated to have an aggregate value of
R$1 trillion (~US$250 billion), with the intention of promoting a more
competitive environment and paying off some of the public debt.
17.
Accounting
for more than one-fourth of the domestic federal public debt (R$3.8 trillion or
US$1 trillion) in 2019, the net interest outlays alone represent one-fifth of
the government’s primary expenditure. While not necessarily all assets will be
put into the market, the planned wave of privatisation will allow the Brazilian
government to greatly reduce its debt level, which stood at 88% of GDP in 2018.
18.
Given the
massive assets involved, the privatisation process cannot be done without
foreign investor participation. As of January 2019, the Brazilian government
reportedly had 134 federal-owned companies, spanning all sectors from
commodities such as energy, oil and gas to services including finance and
insurance.
 |
From: HKTDC 2020
|
19.
The current
investment mechanism Investment
Partnerships Programme (Programa de Parcerias de Investimentos, PPI) will
ensure a level playing field for domestic and foreign investors in the
privatisation process. All qualified PPI projects will be treated as
a national priority and will be required to go through the following six phases
in an efficient manner.
20.
From its inception in 2016 to end-2018, a total of 124 PPI projects were awarded to the
private sector, including 47 foreign companies. In addition to the 100-plus
projects in the PPI portfolio
as of August 2019, the BOLSONARO administration
is determined to continue to expand the portfolio size and coverage to embrace
private investment, regardless of domicile, in a bid to jump-start the ailing
Brazilian economy.
21.
In the first round of the privatisation plan announced in August 2019,
the BOLSONARO administration added a
total of nine federally owned companies to the PPI. Although the privatisation of such large federally run
companies as Telebras and Correios is unlikely to be
completed in the coming two years, many international investors have reportedly
shown serious interest.
SIX PHASES FOR PPI PROJECTS
|
||
Phase
|
Major
Requirement
|
|
1. Studies
|
Concession studies
are prepared, analysed and approved
|
|
2. Public consultation
|
All public hearings
are held, as well as the necessary revisions to the studies before sending
them to TCU (Federal Court of Accounts).
|
|
3. Judgment from TCU
|
The studies are
analysed and the TCU judgment is issued.
|
|
4. Notice
|
Documents are
reviewed and the grant notice is published.
|
|
5. Auction
|
Participating
companies will prepare their bids that will be presented on the auction date.
|
|
6. Contract
|
Any auction
proceeds are presented, and all necessary procedures for contract signing are
performed.
|
|
Source: Investment
Partnerships Programme (Programa de Parcerias de Investimentos, PPI)
|
||
 |
From: HKTDC 2020
|
22.
For
example, Amazon and Alibaba are reportedly keen on the
national postal service provider Correios.
In the meantime, many are looking forward to the next batches of privatisation
targets.
23.
Even
before the aforesaid reforms, Mainland
China has shown intense interest in investment projects in Brazil, which is
not only the world’s 9th largest economy in terms of GDP, but a key member of
BRICS – a group of leading emerging markets composed of Brazil, India, Mainland
China, Russia and South Africa. In 2018, mainland China had an FDI stock of
US$3.8 billion in Brazil – the biggest investment aside from the Cayman Islands
and British Virgin Islands in Latin America and the Caribbean.
24.
Although
recent statistics from the Ministry of the Economy’s Foreign Investment
Bulletin have revealed some declines in mainland China’s FDI flows to
Brazil, the areas of investment have in fact become more diversified than
before. This could mean that a wider spectrum of Chinese investors are looking
for opportunities in the Brazilian economy.
25.
One
common factor among these mainland investors is that, regardless of whether
they are State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) or privately-owned enterprises
(POEs), many of them have set up operations in Hong Kong to better manage and
finance their overseas operations and investments. Examples in the case of
Brazil include China Three Gorges (北京中國長江三峽) and Anhui Zhongding (安徽中鼎控股).
26.
As
mainland investors are expected to invest more in Brazil, the role of their
Hong Kong offices will become more crucial, creating in turn a huge demand for
Hong Kong professional services.
Nine Federal-Owned Companies Added to PPI
in August 2019
Company
|
Major Business
|
1. Telebras
|
Provides
telecommunications infrastructure and networks
|
2. Correios
|
Provides
letter and parcel services as well as financial services.
|
3. Codesp
|
Manages
the Port of Santos
|
4. Dataprev
|
Processes social security
benefits
|
5. Serpro
|
Develops
technological solutions for government agencies
|
6. Emgea
|
Provides
debt collection services with government agencies
|
7. Ceitec
|
Operates
in the semiconductor segment
|
8. Ceagesp
|
Maintains
the largest public network of warehouses, silos and bulk carriers in the
state of São Paulo
|
9. ABGF
|
Manages
the guarantee funds for export operations and infrastructure
|
 |
From: HKTDC 2020
|
[END OF REPORT]
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EXTENDED READINGS
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Government-New-Policy-and-New-Opportunities/rp/en/1/1X000000/1X0AJMRF.htm
Copyright©2020 Hong Kong Trade Development Council.
Reproduction in whole or in part without prior permission is prohibited. While
every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, the Hong Kong Trade Development
Council is not responsible for any errors. Views expressed in this report are
not necessarily those of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council.
#############################################
THE HONG KONG TRADE DEVELOPMENT COUNCIL (HKTDC)
 |
From: HKTDC 2020
|
ABOUT HKTDC
The HONG KONG TRADE
DEVELOPMENT COUNCIL (HKTDC) is a
statutory body established in 1966 to promote, assist and develop Hong Kong's
trade. With 50 offices globally, including 13 in Mainland China, the HKTDC
promotes Hong Kong as a two-way global investment and business hub.
The HKTDC organises
international exhibitions, conferences and business missions to create business
opportunities for companies, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises
(SMEs), in the mainland and international markets. The HKTDC
also provides up-to-date market insights and product information via trade
publications, research reports and digital news channels.
|
||||||||||||
Copyright
© 2020 Hong Kong Trade Development Council. All rights
reserved.
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*********************************
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RONALD DE ALMEIDA SILVA
Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 02jun1947; reside em São Luís, MA, Brasil desde
1976.
Arquiteto Urbanista FAU-UFRJ 1972 / Registro profissional CAU-BR
A.107.150-5
e-mail: ronald.arquiteto@gmail.com
Blog Ronald.Arquiteto (ronalddealmeidasilva.blogspot.com)
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