The Innovation Group
introduces Brazil gaming forecast model [25Aug2016]
25 Aug 2016
Accsess RAS in 25Oct2016.
(PRESS RELEASE) -- THE INNOVATION GROUP is
pleased to announce the development of a national gaming forecast model for
Brazil, and the formation of a consortium with Brazil-based BetConsult and Federico Lannes IGC, to bring clients
comprehensive gaming regulatory and development services in Brazil.
As its legislature prepares to vote on landmark gaming legislation as early as November, the consortium has been hard at work addressing regulatory parameters with government officials, and preparing analytical tools to estimate revenue potential and profitability under a wide range of bingo, casino, and potentially online gaming opportunities. The companies will participate jointly in leading key portions of the BgC 3 Gaming Conference slated for Brazil in November.
Status of Brazil's Gaming Legislation and Regulation
With over 200 million inhabitants, Brazil is one of the largest untapped
gaming markets in the world. Brazil's most recent effort to address gaming
represents the most ambitious since its prohibition 70 years ago. Standing
legislation would allow both destination casinos and bingo halls (similar to
slot halls), and potentially online gaming opportunities.
The Special Commission on National Development approved Bill 186 by a wide margin last December, and is currently negotiating revised versions from the Senate, under the hand of Senator Fernando Bezerra, and the Chamber of Representatives where a vote on Deputy Guilherme Mussi's rewrite is expected to occur next week.
The Special Commission on National Development approved Bill 186 by a wide margin last December, and is currently negotiating revised versions from the Senate, under the hand of Senator Fernando Bezerra, and the Chamber of Representatives where a vote on Deputy Guilherme Mussi's rewrite is expected to occur next week.
While the final distribution of casinos and bingo halls will be
determined over the course of the next few weeks, the following distributions
are the most recent:
- In states
with at least 25 million inhabitants, 1-3 full casinos (table games and
slot machines) would be permitted depending on the population of the
State, with a maximum of 10% of the floor area dedicated to gaming;
- In any
Municipality, at least one bingo hall would be permitted, with a maximum
of 500 units per location, depending on the population of the
Municipality;
- Jockey
Clubs and Stadiums with a capacity above 15,000 fans are allowed up to 300
bingo machines;
- Broad
online gaming has been reintroduced in recent drafts, after being removed
from the initial version of the bill previously.
A sound regulatory structure is a key consideration and a gating item
for many developers and operators. The
following key aspects of the legislation are paramount:
- Taxation
is expected to be sustainable by international standards, potentially at
10% of gaming revenue, plus some moderate operating and regulatory fees;
- Participation
by local Brazilian companies will be required at some level in all gaming
developments and operations, thus identifying suitable potential partners
early in the process is advised;
- Government
has taken a proactive role in defining parameters for regulation, recognizing
there is great sensitivity in this area. Enforcement would be driven at
the Union (National) level, which should provide greater oversight and
transparency, as well as policies to ensure probity, combat
money-laundering and other regulatory risks.
Gaming Forecast Model
The Innovation Group has been at the forefront of global gaming
expansion for over two decades. The company assists governments in creating
commercially viable regulatory environments that deliver on economic
development goals, while providing critical information to operators and
developers for sizing markets and constructing the most competitive and
successful gaming establishments. The Innovation Group serves the industry
foremost through the development of accurate forecasting tools that become the
backbone of building a gaming industry.
A national gaming forecast model for Brazil has been developed by The
Innovation Group. Revenue projections for Brazil were based on the most current
legislation, with a multitude of adjustments required to account for
demographic and economic diversity across the country:
- The
eligible gaming customer base was adjusted to account only for those above
subsistence level incomes;
- Penetration
rates were based on a combination of current Latin American gaming
behavior and higher more aspirational rates found in the more fully
developed North American gaming markets, and to reflect the differences
between rural and urban residents;
- Base
international tourism growth and induced tourism from gaming are both
considered in the analysis;
- Online
gaming revenue and cannibalization potential were not considered in the
initial demand model, pending the inclusion of internet gaming in the
final bill.
The Innovation Group's casino and bingo gaming revenue forecast model
for Brazil yielded the following estimates for Year 3 operation of the initial
wave of gaming developments:
- U.S. $6.55
- U.S. $7.24 billion in GGR (Gross Gaming Revenue) from casinos and bingo
halls, with substantial non-gaming revenue available in addition;
- 138.1 -
146.6 million visits to casinos or bingo halls;
- U.S.
$47.46 - U.S. $49.40 average spend per casino or bingo hall customer per
visit, with higher-end players spending much more;
- 244,000
gaming positions could be required, well within the current legislative
threshold which would allow above 550,000 positions under any scenario. (A
gaming position is defined as the number of gaming machines plus the
number of individual seats at gaming tables).
The results of The Innovation Group's demand forecast model were
triangulated and validated with several metrics including GGR as a percentage
of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), and residents per gaming position:
- The model
implies that GGR would equate to approximately 0.3% of Brazil's GDP,
compared to current results of 0.1% in Mexico (a slots-only market), 0.3%
in Chile, 0.4% in both the United States and Canada and 0.6% in Argentina;
- At 244,000
positions, there would be approximately 900 residents per position in
Brazil upon market stabilization, compared to 1,200 in Mexico, 1,185 in
Argentina, 465 in Canada and 370 in the United States.
The Innovation Group's national gaming demand model can be adapted to
reflect multiple legislative scenarios, and can efficiently provide customized
analyses for specific states, cities and sites, with sufficient input from
clients.
To explore the market further, contact information has been included for each consortium member below.
To explore the market further, contact information has been included for each consortium member below.
The consortium is urging clients to give careful thought to the best strategies for market entry. The obvious play for larger companies will likely be to flock to Rio de Janeiro or Sao Paulo with the ambition to develop large destination resorts. This may be a home run for a few, with the promise of high revenue and EBITDA volumes.
Others will stick to route operations in bingo halls, a proven high ROI (Return On Investment) play globally. However, the market will be extremely sensitive to the diversity of socioeconomic strata in Brazil. Intense poverty, unpredictable local politics and security concerns could make some of the most obvious locations the most difficult and the least lucrative.
We believe there will be "sleepers" throughout the vast stretches of Brazil, pockets of opportunity to evaluate.
Brazilian Casinos and Gambling in Brazil
Brazil
Gambling News
http://www.casinocity.com.br/english/
Hard Rock International announces
reacquisition of global hotel and casino rights
5 October 2016
The company will now be able to develop, own and license Hard Rock
casinos and hotel-casinos in the western U.S., in addition to other locations
worldwide. read more
The Innovation Group introduces
Brazil gaming forecast model
25 August 2016
The group has formed a consortium with BetConsult and Federico Lannes
IGC in order to bring clients gaming regulatory and development services in
Brazil. read more
Ortiz Gaming supports gaming
legalization in Brazil
18 May 2016
The company sponsored the Brasilian Gaming Congress, which is an
important starting point to the legalization of gaming. read more
Sky Racing World enters the
Brazilian market in partnership with Codere
15 December 2015
With this new agreement, Sky Racing World will be providing wagering on
Australian races exclusively to Brazil via Codere's upcoming advance deposit
wagering (ADW) brand Suaposta and various domestic tracks. read more
Schedule announced for 2016
Latin American Poker Tour
14 December 2015
The tour visits the Bahamas, Chile, Panama and Uruguay, before
finishing in Brazil. read more
Schedule announced for Latin
American Poker Tour season eight
19 January 2015
Debut stop at PokerStars Caribbean Adventure attracts huge field. read more
Defendants in World Cup betting
case want poker ban lifted
7 January 2015
Paul Phua and his son, Darren Phua, were among eight defendants charged
in a multimillion-dollar scheme that accepted wagers on the World Cup soccer
tournament in Brazil last year. read more
Suarez nip rewarded Norwegian
gambler
27 June 2014
Norwegian gambler won $2,850 on Suarez's bite. read more
Germany to win World Cup,
according to Sports Trading Club with $20 million wager
6 June 2014
Sports Trading Club has predicted the 8-1 chance Germany will win and
backed their opinion with a $20 million bet. read more
Police probe $US30-million
lottery 'win' in Brazil
24 February 2010
Some Brazilian lottery players have had their hopes dashed in
discovering their winning ticket had not been registered. read more
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário