‘CHINESE
FOOTBALL REFORM AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM’.
CHINESE
FOOTBALL MID-TO-LONG-TERM
DEVELOPMENT PLAN
(2016-2050).
Compilation / Edition: RONALD
DE ALMEIDA SILVA; Architect Urbanist
São Luís, Maranhão,
Brazil; 28.August.2018.
 |
https://www.corporatenetwork.com/media/1637/china-gets-its-game-on-201701.pdf
|
CHINA
GETS ITS GAME ON
The emerging power of China’s sports and fitness industry
“The most notable government initiative for sports is the “Chinese Football Mid-to-Long-term Development Plan (2016-2050)”.
China has three major football (soccer) targets:
Ø
to qualify again for the FIFA World Cup,
Ø
to host a World Cup and
Ø to win a
World Cup. “
By ECN -
The Economist Corporate Network
Access RAS in
28aug2017.
Acknowledgements
“China gets its game on: The emerging
power of China’s sports and fitness industry” is a publication
of The Economist Corporate Network
(ECN). It aims to provide useful, thought-provoking data, commentary and
analyses on the scale and potential of athletics and physically activity in the
world’s second-largest economy.
ECN gratefully acknowledges the support of ANTA Sports Products, the sponsor of China gets its game on.
Irrespective of sponsorship, as with all our content output, ECN produced this
study with complete editorial independence.
ROB KOEPP, director of ECN in Beijing and Hong Kong, designed, researched and
wrote this report.
The supervising editor was ROBERT
WARD, global editorial director of The Economist Intelligence Unit (The
EIU).
COLETTE MILWARD, senior
sub editor of Country Publishing at The EIU, served as copy editor.
This report also
greatly benefited from the graphics and layout design work of Wai Lam,
Asia-Pacific art director at The Economist Group.
December 2016
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- We take the size of the current
combined value of China’s sports and fitness market at nearly Rmb1.5trn
(US$ 217 billion). Almost 70% of that amount comes from the
consumption of sporting goods and equipment.
- Approximately
one-third of Chinese people frequently exercise, implying that 434m people
in China are physically active.
- Among Chinese provinces and
metropolitan areas, Beijing has the largest percentage of people who
regularly exercise at least once per week—50%. The other metros and
provinces in the top tier of physically active regions are Chongqing,
Liaoning, Shanghai and Tianjin.
- China’s
population of 1.36 billion is roughly equally split between under-40s and
over-40s. By 2030, those over 40 years of age will outnumber those under
40 by almost 40%.
- Over the same period, Chinese private
consumption will rise more than threefold to nearly US$14 trillion. As
China’s population ages, it will also be getting richer.
- We
see China’s clothing and footwear, health, and leisure and education
sectors poised for strong growth of between 26% and 42% over the next five
years.
- Other sources estimate that sales of
sportswear will jump by more than 50% between 2015 and 2020. Indicators
also suggest a greater presence of foreign brands, providing a healthy
competitive environment, benefiting Chinese consumers and providing
incentives for domestic brands to improve their offerings.
- Multiple
sectors in China are undergoing a shift towards “premiumisation”. In
China’s activewear market, that will result in consumers searching for
greater product differentiation and functionality.
- China’s State Council has targeted
sports and fitness for rapid expansion, aiming for the industry to exceed
Rmb5trn (US$ 722.5 billion) in value by 2025.
- We
estimate China’s sports-to-GDP ratio at 1.9%. The government’s goal implies
Market muscle Government assist a target of 3% or higher—aggressive but
achievable.
- We forecast China’s GDP growth to
decline significantly by 2018. The growth of private consumption will
continue to outpace that of GDP, however, and remain above 5%.
- The most notable government
initiative for sports is the “Chinese Football Midto-Long-term Development Plan (2016-2050)”.
China has three major football (soccer) targets:
Ø to qualify again for the FIFA World Cup,
Ø to host a World Cup and
Ø to win a World Cup.
- Football offers many advantages over
other sports as the focus of China’s push for worldwide sporting glory.
However, the country will need drastically to improve on its current level
of performance.
- The
Chinese Super League (CSL) started its new season in March 2016, after CSL
clubs spent €331m (US$ 351 million) on foreign players during the winter
transfer window—a record for China and an amount that exceeded by almost
one-third the total transfer spending of English Premier League clubs.
- Chinese interests have already poured
some US$1.5 billion into European football, with over US$ 2 billion still
on offer to targeted European clubs.
- An
estimated 80m-100m older Chinese, almost all women, practice a form of
dance calisthenics known as guangchangwu (“plaza dancing”).
- Guangchangwu represents a major trend
in physical activity for older Chinese and offers a significant commercial
opportunity, which Chinese business and investors are acting upon.
- Skiing
has been steadily growing in popularity in China, but the market still
lags that of major developed economies, such as the US. However, winter
sports in China could be on track for a major boost from the 2022 Beijing Olympic Games.
- There is a great deal of untapped
potential associated with traditional Chinese martial arts and methods for
enhancing health and wellness.
- In
China today, traditional martial arts and wellness methods (the latter
known as yangsheng), are actively practiced. However, these traditions
have fallen out of step with global trends, with many younger people
favouring imported practices.
- A major opportunity for unleashing
the potential of sports and fitness in China could lie in applying
traditional Chinese concepts of physical strength and wellness to modern
consumer demand.
INTRODUCTION
A springboard for
discussion This study presents a range of up-to-date, forward-looking views on
sports and fitness in China. It interweaves perspectives on what is happening
in the industry with trends among Chinese consumers and sporting participants.
Beyond its industry focus, the report shows how market dynamics provide insight
into the nation’s evolving role in the global economy.
Although not intended
as a comprehensive study on all segments of the industry, the report provides
useful, thought-provoking data, commentary and analyses on the scale and
potential of athletics and physical activity in the world’s second-largest
economy.
The Economist
Corporate Network hopes this report’s findings can serve as a springboard for
informed discussion on the range of topics covered.
MARKET MUSCLE
The strength of demand for sports and
fitness
Having only recently
begun to transition towards a consumption-driven economy, China Inc. has not
been globally renown for an industry like sports and fitness as a symbol of its
prowess.
Instead, the country’s economic dynamo has been associated with such
factors as its famously diligent workforce, government policy that coddles
smokestack industries, and a population that stashes away hard-won earnings into
savings rather than splurge on lifestyle pursuits. In the past, the health
objectives of average Chinese city dwellers have tended towards finding ways to
protect against polluted air and tainted food, not availing themselves of
modern fitness facilities and outdoor recreational opportunities.
The old aspects of
China’s economic make-up are undergoing profound, in many ways surprising,
changes. Its sports industry today exhibits real strengths and is poised for
more growth in the years ahead.
Sports and fitness in
China is, moreover, an area where some form of participation—far more than mere
spectating—contributes the greatest monetary value.
AN ACTIVE
MARKET
eCapital, a
Beijing-headquartered investment bank, puts the combined value of sports and
fitness in China at nearly Rmb1.5trn (US$216.8bn).(1)
By its estimates, the
consumption of sporting goods and equipment contributes close to 70% of that
amount.
Another 13% comes
from revenue generated by fitness centres and money spent on physical training.
Insofar as the sporting goods segment includes “activewear” and shoes that can
be worn casually for fashion and comfort as well as for strenuous physical
pursuits, it is not an exact indicator of sports and fitness activity in a
country.
Moreover, some observers
are also quick to point out that official Chinese government data on the
nation’s sports industry, from which eCapital derives its information, tend to
exceed standard global estimates.
That being said,
sizing the market in this way is useful for ascertaining the prevailing views
on market scale and potential within China.
Furthermore, it
offers a barometer of how government planners and domestic businesses and
investors are assessing the market and formulating strategies for further
development of China’s sports and fitness industry.
Moreover, concerning
the large portion of the market attributed to sporting goods and equipment, as
a proxy of sports and fitness activities, these products do in fact provide kit
to those participating in athletics and exercise.
As examined below and
in this report’s closing section, other statistics likewise point to a
population that is becoming more physically active. In this context, it is
therefore not surprising that the market segments of fitness centres and
athletic and fitness training, for example (representing a combined value of
Rmb193.8bn or US$28bn), are attracting about as much money as the national
sports lottery (which annually earns Rmb199.7bn or US$28.9bn).
REGIONAL
ACTIVITY
Demographic surveys
point to a population that is exercising more. The latest figures show that, on
average, slightly over one-third (34%) of Chinese people frequently exercise—a
marked increase from the 28.2% registered seven years earlier. Considering a
multitude of bottom-up factors brought about by China’s economic momentum and
the top-down effects of supportive government policies, those percentages will
probably rise further in the coming years.
On the basis of the
provinces and major metropolitan areas reporting, the rate of physical activity
implies that 434m people in China were physically active according to the
government’s latest survey. In the wake of extensive upgrades to its public
spaces and sports and fitness facilities leading up to and following the 2008 Summer
Olympics, Beijing stands out as home to the largest percentage of people who
regularly exercise.
One-half of all Beijingers over the age of six manage to
exercise at least once per week. Remote and relatively poor provinces—Ningxia,
Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai— record the lowest percentages of frequent exercisers,
registering participation rates of between 25% and 29%.
To the extent that
Chinese regions continue to develop economically, their residents are likely
increasingly to participate in sports and fitness activities.
The rising
consumer power that accompanies such development will further stimulate related
sectors, such as health and leisure, as well.
 |
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China
gets its game on; ECN; Page 7.
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(1) eCapital’s market
valuation combines and extrapolates data from China’s General Administration of
Sport, Ministry of Finance, National Bureau of Statistics, The Twelfth Fiveyear
Plan for Sports Development, China Statistical Yearbook, Annual Report on
Development of Sports Industry in China (2015), 2014 China Fitness Industry
Development Report, iResearch, Sports Weekly, CVSC-Sofres Media, NetEase,
Plunkett Research, IHRSA, IBIS World, Laurent Vanat, PwC, and IEG. ECN’s
graphic representation of the market combines segments generating less than
Rmb7bn (US$1.1bn) in revenues. All US$ calculations in this report use an
exchange rate of Rmb6.92 to the US dollar.
******************************************************
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RONALD DE ALMEIDA SILVA
Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 02jun1947; reside em São
Luís, MA, Brasil desde 1976.
Arquiteto Urbanista FAU-UFRJ 1972 / Registro
profissional CAU-BR A.107.150-5
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